U.S. Civil War Coming?

If you happen to live in the Midwest you may eventually become a Canadian citizen after a civil war occurs. That's what Igor Panarin predicts. Mr. Panarin heads the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for diplomats. He is a former KGB analyst and is a key Russian expert on Russia-U.S. relations.

He argues that:

• Economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war in the U.S. in 2010;
• There is a 55-45% chance that the U.S. will disintegrate and split into six parts (see map below);
• Each part will become affiliated with another country or part of the world--for example, Midwest and several other states will become affiliated with Canada.

Is he serious? Yes, at least that's what the official media in Russia would have us all believe.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama can work miracles, he has written, "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

Does anyone believe him? Well, he points out that French political scientist Emmanuel Todd rightly forecasted the demise of the Soviet Union 15 years before it happened. Few believed him but in the end he was right.

Quick Vue: Igor Penarin is interviewed below.

Sources for this post include The Wall Street Journal, article by Andrew Osborn.

Merry Christmas!

May your holiday season be wonderful and may it enable you to create many fond memories!

I invite you to enjoy the accompanying video below. It is from a Christmas concert in St. Paul's Cathedral in London. The choir and congregation sing three verses of Hark! The Herald Angels Sing accompanied by the organ and an orchestra. The music soars and the last note echoes off the walls of the cathedral.

During the second verse the camera pans the faces of the members of the boys choir. Check out their traditional collars as well as the facial expressions conveying enthusiasm.

In the third verse the choir sings a descant that is terrific. Be sure to play this when you can "blast" the sound.

Merry Christmas!

A Silent Revolution?

Women Business Owners Transform Afghanistan

There's a revolution brewing in Afghanistan. It is very silent. The revolutionary leaders are women--some 10,000 entrepreneurs who are using micro-loans to start beauty parlors, bakeries, handcraft shops and more. This in a country where women are more vulnerable than anywhere else.

Afghan women entrepreneurs meet with Laura Bush

in the city of Arzu in June 2008. (White House photo.)

Note these key points excerpted and condensed from The Wall Street Journal and Christian Science Monitor:

• Women entrepreneurs are emerging from the isolation of war and the Taliban to help build a more prosperous nation.
• Per Suraya Parlika, founder of the All Afghan Women's Union: Entrepreneurship has restorative powers not only for women but also the nation.
• For many women, entrepreneurship skills are a gateway to greater sense of independence, allowing them to feel more entitled to their rights.
• The benefits are more than symbolic. Women are earning enough to support themselves. Women-owned businesses now provide employment and marketable skills to other women.
• Under the Taliban, millions of women were banned from working and going to school. Even today the idea of a woman owning a business is still taboo to many. Suraya Parlika has been shot at twice in three years while training 500 women to become entrepreneurs. Yet, the revolution continues to build.
• Per Paula Dobriansky, Undersecretary for Democracy and Global Affairs, U.S. Department of State: No country can be stable so long as only half of its population is free to succeed. And foreign stability through such things as women-owned businesses makes the U.S. safer.

Ms. Dobriansky recently remarked how the number of women entrepreneurs in Afghanistan is growing. She referred to meeting with women entrepreneurs on three separate occasions. The first time she met just two women who were setting up a micro-finance bank. The next meeting had to be held in the cafeteria of the U.S. embassy, a space large enough for 80 to 100 women, all owners of a business--from kites to a cement factory to furniture to rugs. The third time they met in the headquarters of a federation of women entrepreneurs.

"It was striking to us," Ms. Dobriansky said, "what a little targeted assistance could do to support this fundamental change from the time of the Taliban."

Some revolutions are loud and noisy. But in Afghanistan there is a revolution building quietly, led by women entrepreneurs. Stay tuned!

Its impact will hopefully reach you and me.

Quick Vue -- Women entrepreneurs in Afghanistan. (Approx. 3.5 minutes)

Quick Vue -- Five Afghan women business owners meet with women business owners in Oklahoma through a program called Peace Through Business. (Approx. 2 minutes)

Embrace Darkness

Lighten up?

NASA satellite photo.

Ever see this picture showing how much light our country produces at night? It's amazing and it shows how increasingly difficult it is to see the stars in all their glory. Last month National Geographic featured a cover story about light pollution--how our artificial light impacts nature.

Here is some information excerpted and condensed from that article:

• Nighttime lighting upsets circadian rhythms (the oscillation of waking and sleeping essential to our biological welfare) causing effects just now being discovered. One study suggests a correlation between breast cancer and nighttime brightness.
• Two-thirds of humanity lives under skies polluted with light. One-fifth can no longer see the Milky Way.
• In the Eastern half of the U.S., one would be hard-pressed to find any dark sky area, meaning a place where you can avoid night glow.
• Many cities, such as Flagstaff, Arizona, and countries, such as the Czech Republic, have committed to reducing unwanted glare.
• Where to go for the best dark sky area anywhere? The Central African Republic.

The video below will give you a quick visual overview of the issue. Towards the end off the video you'll see what we're missing.

(Quick Vue hint: Advance the cursor slightly more than halfway to begin with a fascinating satellite view of the world at night.)

Click on second icon from lower right to enlarge to full screen.

Water Triumphs

Last month, NASA's Mars lander, Phoenix, radioed its last message back to Earth. The message was "Triumph," meaning that the lander had confirmed the existence of water on the planet Mars. How will history record the importance of this event, which came at the same time as Barack Obama was elected President of the United States?

Back here on Earth, we are reminded of how precious water has become. Fresh water accounts for just 3% of all Earth's water. By some estimates, water is a $500 billion industry.

Note these points excerpted and condensed from an article entitled "How to Quench the World's Thirst" by Alexandra Alter in the November 8-9 edition of the Wall Street Journal:

• Geopolitical experts warn that water scarcity poses not just a public health risk but also a threat to global security.
• 1.1 billion people, one-sixth of Earth's population, lack safe drinking water.
• Global water consumption is growing at unsustainable rates, doubling every 20 years.
• International Alert, a London-based conflict resolution group, lists 46 countries with a combined population of 2.7 billion that have a high risk for violent conflict over water in the next two decades.
• 75-80% of surface water in India, China or Russia is too polluted to drink, bathe in or fish in.
• The U.S. exports about a third of its water as "virtual water"--meaning the water used to produce goods like cars and computer chips.

Included above are several points from an interview with Maude Barlow, the United Nation's first senior adviser on water issues.

No wonder, then, that the eight states and two Canadian provinces bordering the Great Lakes, which contain nearly 20% of the world's fresh water, recently signed the Great Lakes compact. Almost 10 years in the making, the compact restricts diverting water from the five lakes, their connecting channels and the St. Lawrence River.

Consider yourself forewarned. Access to fresh water is going to become a BIG issue in our lives.

Quick Vue Spotlights
Here are two videos which add perspective. The first is a cut from MSNBC's coverage of the discovery of water on Mars. (Hint: For quickest vue, advance the cursor halfway.)

The second video will tell you about efforts in Kazakhstan to revive the Aral Sea. The former Soviet Union diverted 75% of the water from the Aral Sea to grow cotton. The Sea shrank and split into two parts, leaving behind what the International Herald Tribune described as a "mineral stew that unleashed disease and poverty onto the hundreds of villages and cities in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan that once lived off its bounty." The World bank and the Kazakhstan government have completed a dam to revive one of the two smaller lakes. This video will give you a great overview of what it looks like when you deplete a sea--complete with haunting images of abandoned vessels sitting on land that was once under water--and then try to revive it. It's a hopeful sign.

The New Frontier

Can you imagine doing this?

Parachute jump from over 100,000 feet.

In 1893, Frederick Jackson Turner wrote a paper entitled "The Significance of the Frontier in American History." Daniel Henninger, of the Wall Street Journal, mentioned this in his column today--"America Needs Its Frontier Spirit।" (See link at right.)

"Turner argued," Mr. Henninger wrote, "that the U.S. found its identity as it pushed away from the Eastern seaboard and crossed the frontier 'fall lines': the Allegheny Mountains, the Mississippi, the Missouri, the plains, the Rocky Mountains and California."

Turner described the "traits of the frontier," things like "coarseness of strength combined with acuteness and inquisitiveness...nervous energy...and dominant individualism, working for good and evil."

"Individualism working for good is the story of America's entrepreneurs, the wonder of the world the past 100 years," wrote Mr. Henninger.

Entrepreneurs are risk takers and that's what has made our country grow. But then, risk takers also helped cause the current economic recession.

Mr. Henninger makes a very good point: We need risk takers to continue the long economic miracle we know as the U.S. In the current climate, however, many people are risk averse. That's fine to a point. Ultimately though, we need risk takers.

With that in mind I call your attention to Joseph W. Kittinger II, a highly decorated U.S. Air Force Colonel who spent 18 months during the Vietnam War as a POW in the Hanoi Hilton prison.

But my reason for mentioning Colonel Kittinger is not that particular experience. Rather, it is because he demonstrated frontier spirit in August 1960. That's when he made a volunteer parachute jump from more than 100,000 feet--literally from space. He jumped from a platform suspended from a helium balloon at 102,800 feet. He wore a pressurized suit and fell for 4 minutes and 36 seconds, reaching a speed of over 600 miles per hour.

It was actually his third high altitude jump. The first one almost killed him. He decided to try it again to get it right.

The jumps were part of Air Force Project Excelsior, which conducted research for the design of escape systems for high altitude flying and space travel.

Colonel Kittinger embodied the frontier spirit observed by Mr. Turner in 1893 and of which Mr. Henninger reminds us today. That spirit is what helped make our country great and will do so going forward--if we embrace it.

The clip below will tell you more about Colonel Kittinger's jump. He appears in the video.

(For Quick Vue advance the cursor halfway. Click on the second icon from the left in lower right corner to enlarge video to full screen.)

Who's Responsible?

A friend has invited me to think more critically about corporations. Let's face it. Corporations sometimes do bad things. But they're not inherently evil. They are amoral, human organizations capable of doing both bad and good. They are reflections of the people who run and staff them.

This may be splitting hairs when facing an economic crisis brought on, at least in part, by corporations which did some really stupid things. Who is responsible if not corporations like Citigroup and Bear Stearns?

Thomas Friedman, columnist for the New York Times, put things into perspective for me when, in a recent column entitled "All Fall Down," he wrote:

"This financial meltdown involved a broad national breakdown in personal responsibility, government regulation and financial ethics. So many people were in on it: People who had no business buying a home...bundling those loans into securities and selling them to third parties as if they were AAA bonds...buying those bonds and putting them on their balance sheets so they could earn a little better yield."

"Citigroup was involved in, and made money from, almost every link in that chain. And the bank's executives, including, sad to see, the former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, were clueless about the reckless financial instruments...or were so ensnared by the cronyism between the bank's risk managers and risk takers (and so bought off by their bonuses) that they had no interest in stopping it."

Doesn't it make you want to scream?

I'm reminded of a well known song, Father and Son, by Yusuf Islam, formerly known as Cat Stevens. The song is a conversation between a father and son. The father cautions his son not to react too severely when he finds that things in the world are amiss. The lyrics include these words of the father:

"I was once like you are now, and I know that it's not easy,
To be calm when you've found something going on.
But take your time, think a lot,
Think of everything you've got.
For you will still be here tomorrow, but your dreams may not."

But the son's righteous indignation persists. He feels compelled to leave and strike out on his own to a fate of which we can only guess. Perhaps years later the son becomes the father, cautioning his son to stay calm.

So, who is responsible for fixing the economy? Well,in many ways it's each of us. For the economy is really a compilation of financial and lifestyle decisions we all make. Perhaps each of us must determine which of the two people in the song we will most resemble--the father or the son?



Yusuf Islam performs Father and Son in a 2007 BBC telecast.

For related information see links at right.

Thanksgiving Tributes

A friend recently sent along an e-mail containing photos from Iraq, part of a tribute to fallen members of Baker Company, U.S. Marines. The photos, two of which are shown below, had an impact on me.

Marines catch up on sleep (above) and spell out "We Remember" (below.) Double click to enlarge.

So this Thanksgiving, in addition to being grateful for loving and supportive family and friends, and for good health, I give thanks to the men and women in uniform who serve our country--in Iraq, Afghanistan and all over the world.

I am including two items as part of my thanks. The first is a link to the National Museum of American History, in Washington, D.C., and its special exhibit entitled "The Price of Freedom: Americans at War." It provides an apolitical examination of how wars have shaped our nation's history. As such, it provides a fitting tribute to those who serve in our military.

Here is how the Museum describes the exhibit: "The Price of Freedom: Americans at War surveys the history of America’s military from the French and Indian Wars to the present conflict in Iraq, exploring ways in which wars have been defining episodes in American history. The exhibition extends far beyond a survey of battles to present the link between military conflict and American political leadership, social values, technological innovation, and personal sacrifice. The heart of the story is the impact of war on citizen soldiers, their families, and communities."

You can take a virtual walk through the exhibit by going to: http://americanhistory.si.edu/exhibitions/exhibition.cfm?key=38&exkey=77 Also see link at right.

Second, I invite you to view the video below of a performance by the rock band U-2 at the 2002 Super Bowl at the Louisiana Superdome. The song, Where the Streets Have No Name (a personal favorite), is a tribute to the 9/11 attacks. The performance includes a huge banner (visible in the background in the still photo below) on which are listed the names of those killed in the attacks. The names scroll upward, rising metamorphically like a skyscraper then appear to suddenly collapse.

To enlarge to full screen click on the second icon from the right.

Time for the R Words

The UK's Daily Mail has called Cleveland the "sub-prime capital of America." There were some 17,000 foreclosures here last year. Yet new investors, some from great distances away, have recently entered the market. The house below on Cleveland's west side is an example. An investor bought it in 2007. Can you guess the purchase price?

Take a breath. It was $1,500. (No, that's not a typo.) Properties like this can be fixed up cost-effectively and sold or rented profitably.

It's encouraging that people are finding reasons to invest. (One might view this a case of vultures swooping in.) Perhaps it signals a beginning of the end to the financial crisis.

What happened? How did the wheels come off and why did it catch us (most of us) by surprise?

In the last post we cited a need for greater stewardship. Webster's Pocket Dictionary defines a steward as "a person entrusted with the management of the affairs of others." It implies a high degree of responsibility. And there it is--one of the "R" words that are at the heart of the problem.

Daniel Henninger of The Wall Street Journal wrote about them today in an article called "Mad Max and the Meltdown." Here's what he said:

"What really went missing through the subprime mortgage years were the three Rs: responsibility, restraint and remorse. They are the ballast that stabilizes two better-known Rs from the world of free markets: risk and reward."

"Responsibility and restraint are moral sentiments," Mr. Henninger wrote. "Remorse is a product of conscience. None of these grow on trees, each must be learned, taught, passed down."

He asserts that our society's move toward greater secularization and "dereligioning" encouraged the behaviors that resulted in the subprime crisis. Bankers, borrowers, investment managers and government officials are people after all. We're all capable of good and bad acts. But now we must ask--who is teaching the concepts of responsibility, restraint and remorse?

When was the last time you heard anyone talk about the virtue of restraint?

I like Mr. Henninger's summation: "The point for a healthy society of commerce and politics is not that religion saves, but that it keeps most of the players inside the chalk lines. We are erasing the chalk lines."

We better find some chalk.

Time for Improved Stewardship

Several interesting data points can be found among three articles in today's Wall Street Journal. (See sources listed below.) As I contemplated these I found myself wondering what happened to the idea of being prepared for a rainy day? What happened to stewardship?

Here are the data points:

1. More than 12 million homeowners, out of about 75 million, have mortgages that exceed the value of their homes. The average negative equity gap is about $40,000. Yikes!

2. Declining state tax revenues are causing budget troubles.

• California faces a budget deficit of $10 billion.


• To help deal with a $2 billion budget deficit, Illinois is slowing down payment of its bills.


• Pennsylvania announced a hiring freeze on September 16 to solve its budget woes. But a few weeks later its deficit grew by nearly $300 million.


• The Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates that the average public sector employee earns 46% more in total compensation than counterparts in private industry. That's because governments spend 60% more per worker on benefits including retirement.


• According to the Pew Charitable Trust, states have about $11 billion saved up to pay some $381 billion in future nonpension benefits such as health care.

3. New York City faces severe declines in revenues as the result of layoffs on Wall Street. During the recent financial bubble many people on Wall Street made lots of money and consequently paid lots of city income taxes. So what did New York City do? It increased its rolls of full-time employees to a record 313,965 as of June 30, 2008. In 2004 the number was about 260,000.

All this begs the question: What were they thinking?

It's time for a renewed emphasis on something that has been allowed to lapse: Stewardship.

Sources:

• "Our Spendthrift States Don't Need a Bailout" - Steve Malanga, senior editor, Manhattan Institutes's City Journal
• "The Public Payroll Always Rises" - Editorial, Wall Street Journal
• "How to Help People Whose Home Values are Underwater" - Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and chair of Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan

What Happens When No One is Left to Remember?

Remember this famous photo?
The Associated Press reported yesterday that 90 year old Edith Shain, of Los Angeles, says that she is the nurse in the photo. It was taken in 1945 in Times Square on the day Japan surrendered, ending World War II. Famous photographer Alfred Eisenstaedt snapped the shutter just as the sailor and nurse, strangers to each other, kissed in the midst of a jubilant crowd. They went their separate ways so quickly that Mr. Eisenstaedt could not record their names.

If indeed Ms. Shain is the nurse, her age reminds us that those who remember World War II are getting up in years. At some point in the not too distant future no one will be left to remember. What happens then?

It's one thing to read or hear about events as tumultuous as World War II but it's not the same as having lived during that time. How well will we the successors apply the lessons learned?

I have long been shocked and intrigued by the Holocaust. How could it have happened? I've read and watched movies about it and have visited Holocaust museums and exhibits in Jerusalem, Washington, D.C., and Cleveland. But not having experienced the Holocaust first hand, it remains at least to some extent an abstraction.

Every now and then I'm jolted by a first person account of some horrible event or, interestingly, something comparatively mild. Two recent articles in The Plain Dealer did just that.

The first was a story about former Army infantryman Joe Pucci, who was part of the Allied invasion at the seaside resort of Anzio, in Italy, in January 1944. It was a surprise sea-based attack behind enemy lines met with enormous resistance by the German army. It was awful. The Allied troops were pinned down on the beach for four treacherous months. But that's not what struck me so much. The jolt came from the realization that Mr. Pucci was drafted when he was a junior in high school. A junior! In short order he found himself on a troop ship sailing for North Africa. Imagine, one day you're a high school kid in Cleveland and then suddenly you're on a troop ship making its way to a battle in North Africa. Talk about growing up fast! How different my life would have been had I experienced all that at such an early age.

And then there is the story of Betty Gold who at age 66 is committed to telling young people how the Nazis wiped her home town off the map. She grew up in Trochenbrod, a Jewish farming settlement in Poland. On August 9, 1942, the Nazis forced most of the inhabitants into the town's center and shot them. Some 4,500 people were murdered that day. Ms. Gold, 11 years old then, was one of 16 family members who hid behind a fake wall in a shed behind her family's home. They huddled close together in silence and fear waiting for the Nazis to come. That's when a toddler, her cousin's daughter, began to cry and wouldn't stop.

"The mother frantically tried to shush her daughter," the article recounts. "She rocked her, she spoke softly to her, she kissed her. But the shrieks intensified. The other people in the tiny space bit their lips, their eyes darting nervously. The mother clamped one hand over the girl's mouth and the other her soft neck. She squeezed her daughter's windpipe. Hard. The crying stopped."

Imagine the horror of that day and ask--what in our experience comes close to that?

It's fitting that we have events like Veterans Day to help us remember the important lessons learned in the past. But a part of me wonders what will happen when persons like Edith Shain, Joe Pucci and Betty Gold are no longer around to tell their first hand accounts. What happens when no one is left to remember? We will of course remember...but, admittedly, it's just not the same.

Trust the Process

Many years ago I learned an important lesson. I was a member of a church long range planning committee. Our group came up with what we thought was an outstanding idea--start a child daycare center. The congregation had to vote its approval for the center to become a reality.

The issue was highly contentious with strongly-held views expressed on both sides. In the end the congregation voted the idea down. I was not a happy camper and entertained thoughts of how to circumvent the congregation. That's when Jack, the committee chair and prominent attorney with a national law firm, pulled me aside. He quietly counseled me to "trust the process." Over time, he said, despite ups and downs, it has been proven that the process works. Subsequent events, not necessary to recount here, showed that he was right.

I have never understood the enormous disrespect many people have demonstrated toward President Bush. I do understand that there are differences of opinion and that one can be passionately against positions taken by another. But to heap ridicule and scorn upon those we don't agree with, as many have done with respect to President Bush, serves only to deepen differences and conflict.

I did not vote for Barack Obama for president. But he is now president-elect, which means that on January 20, 2009, he will become my president. He thus deserves my respect. He shall have it.

It was heartening to see today's Wall Street Journal quote blogger and law professor Glenn Reynolds. On election day he wrote the following at Forbes.com: "'I thought it was wrong when Bush supporters in 1992 slapped "Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Bush" stickers on their cars before Clinton was sworn in...I'm not an Obama fan, particularly, but a lot of people I like and respect are. To treat Obama as something evil or subhuman would not only be disrespectful toward Obama, but toward them. Instead, I hope that if Obama is elected, their assessment of his strengths will turn out to be right, and mine will turn out to be wrong.'"

Jack has since passed away. But I feel as though he were standing next to me today, advising me to "trust the process."

Congratulations!

Congratulations and best wishes to newly elected President Barack Obama! It's exciting to witness history in the making.

But note that amid the many headlines about Mr. Obama's election win comes this eye-catching banner in today's International Herald Tribune: "Russia to Deploy Missiles Near Poland."

In his first state of the nation address, Russia President Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia will deploy missiles near Poland in response to U.S. missile defense plans. Russia will also install equipment to disrupt a missile defense system the U.S. is planning to implement in Poland and the Czech Republic, new NATO members. The system is intended to defend against missiles from such countries as Iran.

The article also states that Mr. Medvedev "blamed the U.S. for the war in Georgia and the global financial crisis. He said he hoped Barack Obama would act to improve relations with Russia but did not offer congratulations to the president-elect."

Mr. Medvedev said that "it is up to the U.S., not the Kremlin, to seek to improve relations."

Very soon, possibly, we may all be concerned about foreign policy issues that were not very visible just a few days ago.

The president-elect faces many significant challenges.

What Does Barack Obama Want Us to Choose?

Barack Obama speaks eloquently and draws large, passionate crowds. I want to believe that he should be the next president. For some reason I just can't.

Fouad Ajami, professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, has helped me understand why I feel this way. He wrote a Wall Street Journal article entitled "Obama and the Politics of Crowds." It comes down to ambiguity and equality.

Professor Ajami credits Mr. Obama with having a certain political genius--that of being a blank slate onto which people can project onto him what they wish.

"Ambiguity has been a powerful weapon of this gifted candidate," Professor Ajami writes. "He has been different things to different people..."

This ambiguity makes me uncomfortable. I wonder what Mr. Obama is hiding and why. I want more of the measure of the person who seeks to be president. But Mr. Obama remains elusive.

Professor Ajami adds by citing Nobel laureate Elias Canetti's book "Crowds and Power" which states that crowds are about equality. Crowds seek the moment when "'distinctions are thrown off and all become equal. It is for the sake of this blessed moment, when no one is greater or better than another, that people become a crowd."

Equality is something in which I think Mr. Obama truly believes--that and fairness, a word he uses. That's admirable. But I also get the feeling that Mr. Obama is less than fully committed to the importance and value of individualism, individual achievement and the accompanying rewards. I find that troubling.

Kevin O'Brien, columnist with the Plain Dealer in Cleveland, has also helped me see why I react to Mr. Obama the way I do. He recently wrote that at stake "in this election is nothing less than the pivotal question of the individual's relationship to the government--a question defined in what may be the only two moments of candor Obama has offered America during this campaign."

"ABC's Charlie Gibson first lifted the veil back in April," wrote Mr. O'Brien, "during a primary-season debate among Democratic candidates. He asked why Obama would raise capital-gains taxes even if the result were decreased collections for the government."

"Obama replied, 'What I've said is that I would look at raising the capital-gains tax for purposes of fairness.'"

Who decides what's fair?

"Then came Obama's chance meeting with Joe 'The Plumber' Wurzelbacher, who questioned Obama's tax plans and got this reply: 'It's not that I want to punish you for your success. I just want to make sure that everyone who is behind you - that they have a chance for success, too. I think that when you spread the wealth around, it is good for everyone.'"

Who decides what wealth to spread around and to whom?

This is what I struggle with: Mr. Obama believes in equality and that sometimes it is necessary for someone--government--to decide that you or I have to make some adjustment, pay more taxes or do something else not yet seen, to ensure that others have equality of opportunity. That strikes me as a blow against liberty disguised as something more delicate.

It was Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the late Democratic senator from New York who, Professor Ajami wrote, "once set the difference between American capitalism and the older European version by observing that America was the party of liberty, whereas Europe was the party of equality. Just in the nick of time for the Obama candidacy, the American faith in liberty began to crack."

Is this where we find ourselves on the eve of the presidential election, a choice between liberty and equality? Perhaps that is too dramatic.

But it's not unreasonable to suggest that Mr. Obama has a preference between the two, and that by voting for him a person expresses that same preference. That's what Mr. Obama wants us to choose.

Have You Witnessed any Miracles Lately? Keep Watching. They May be Endangered.

I have witnessed a miracle. It unfolded before my eyes during the past two years. No doubt you've seen one or more as well. Don't miss them. Indeed, appreciate them. So, what miracle have I seen?

I've watched as five jobs were created out of thin air by a newly created business. It's an amazing sight and it demonstrates the greatness of America. If not before, I now realize why millions of people all over the world would jump at the chance to live in the U.S. and pursue their dreams.

Dreams--miracles--happen here.

Fred Smith is one person who pursued such a dream. He created a business that became a major corporation. He founded FedEx in the early 1970s. Today FedEx has some 290,000 employees, or team members. The company operates globally and partners with the Red Cross in disaster relief. The very first FedEx aircraft (shown below) now sits on display in the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum. It is fitting testimony to the company's tremendous success and the American story.

During this presidential election there has been much talk about increasing taxes on the wealthy and on corporations. But one key thing has largely been overlooked or at least under appreciated. It is how wealth gets created.

Wealth, whether money in the bank or stock market, or in the form of wages, is largely generated by the miracles of innovation and inventions. They are essential elements to our economic well-being. But like air and water, they can be taken for granted.

Mr. Smith spoke about the sources of wealth in a recent Wall Street Journal interview with Stephen Moore. Wealth doesn't come from the government he asserts. It comes "'...from invention and entrepreneurship and innovation. And our [government] policies promote a legal and regulatory system which impedes our ability to grow entrepreneurship.'"

He also feels that government unnecessarily limits our ability to lead globally.

"'Many of our current policies are not conducive to continued [global] economic leadership," he says. "'We restrict immigration when we have thousands of highly educated people who want to come to the United States, and some of our greatest corporations [are] crying out that we don't have the scientific talent that we need to develop the next generation of innovators and inventions.'"

Mr. Smith would like to see fewer restrictions on such immigration. He would like corporate tax rates lowered to make us more competitive. At 38% our top tax rate is among the highest. In places like Germany, in contrast, the top rate is only 25%. And he'd like to make it possible for corporations to expense more rapidly their capital investments. That includes equipment they use (like airplanes) to provide services or manufacture products.

Large corporations are not the only sources of innovation, new inventions and new jobs. Small businesses do this often in greater ways. The miracle I alluded to above was due to a small business that grew from zero to five people. In fact, most new jobs are created by small businesses. They have generated 60-80% of net new jobs annually over the past decade. They employ about half of all private sector employees.

It's important that as voters we recognize these facts. We face a tough issue right now that Mr. Smith finds alarming.

"'We're now at a point,'" he said, "'where a very large part of the population pays no federal income tax at all. When you have a majority of the population that realizes that you can transfer money from the productive to themselves, that's one of the great questions of the future of civilization, as far as I'm concerned.'"

When the majority of voters see government as a source of wealth, or as a conduit to wealth to be redistributed, one has to wonder: Who will create the new miracles?

Community Organizing may be Key to this Presidential Election

Living in a battleground state such as Ohio makes presidential elections especially interesting. When George Bush and John Kerry were competing it seemed as though the candidates were visiting our city (Cleveland) every other day. Hollywood celebrities canvassed door-to-door. But this election may be teaching new lessons on the best way to campaign.

Barack Obama may lack executive experience but he's an expert on how to organize a community and inspire the grass roots. Obama canvassers have knocked on our door twice and one can find them in the parking lot at the local super grocery. I was very surprised the other day to come across a giant Obama puppet at a busy intersection. I have never seen anything like it in a presidential race. Standing there waving to rush hour traffic, Obama's giant likeness was imposing, almost frightening. Though the puppet is a little hard to see in the photo below, I think you can still get a sense for the drama.



A giant Barack Obama puppet smiles and waves to rush hour motorists at a busy Cleveland intersection. To the right of the puppet an Obama supporter holds signs urging people to vote early.

The McCain campaigners, meanwhile, have been conspicuously absent.

David Broder, columnist with The Washington Post, recently traveled to the city of Wooster, Ohio, about 60 miles south of Cleveland. It's a picturesque place, the seat of Wayne County and home of the highly regarded College of Wooster. Perhaps not surprising for a college town, a sign at the city's edge declares Wooster to be a nuclear free zone. Surrounded by rich farmland Wooster also fits the stereotype of a rural Republican stronghold. Indeed, George Bush won handily in Wooster and Wayne County in both his presidential runs.

Mr. Broder decided to visit this city in the Republican heartland to observe the campaigning. He stopped by the local headquarters of both candidates. The contrast between the two was stark.

The McCain office was quiet with two people working inside when he arrived. Several folks stopped by to pick up McCain-Palin yard signs.

"None were asked to do anything else for the campaign," Mr. Broder wrote, pointing out some missed opportunities.

But two blocks away he found the Obama headquarters to be a beehive of activity.

"Sixteen people were at their desks, talking on phones or working on computers," he observed. He spoke with two volunteers who had been recruited from the East coast to work on the Obama campaign in Wooster. He was told that the number of Obama volunteers is growing at least 100 per week.

Is this a sign of a coming election victory for Senator Obama? Perhaps. In any event, there is a grass roots election spirit that is very much alive and flourishing in Ohio.

Millions of Voters Pay No Federal Income Tax. Many More Will Join Them if Senator Obama's Tax Policy is Implemented. Should We be Concerned?

Adam Lerrick, professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, recently published an article in the Wall Street Journal which warns about this issue. His assertions are based on startling data. Should we be concerned? Yes we should.

According to professor Lerrick, 40% of eligible voters—89 million people—paid no income taxes in 2006. And he says the percentage will increase to 49% as a result of Senator Obama’s proposed tax credits. Further, another 11% of the electorate pay less than 5% of their income in income taxes.

This all means that “three out of every five voters will pay little or nothing in income taxes under Senator Obama’s plans,” he wrote.

Professor Lerrick warns that we're near a tipping point where “half of all voters will receive a cash windfall from Washington (under the Obama plan)."

Is this a good thing?

If you think it is consider that professor Lerrick cautions that it is only a matter of time before Senator Obama's proposed new taxes prove to be inadequate. Government spending will be too great. He predicts that tax increases will ultimately need to be levied upon many additional households, those with incomes of $75,000 or more.

Perhaps the most eye-catching statistics he cites are these:

• Just 5% of taxpayers earn more than $250,000.
• Yet this group pays 60% of the federal income tax bill.

If you’re not part of the 5%, you have a strong incentive to support Senator Obama's tax plan. Chances are you will receive a direct economic benefit, one that the government deems "fair." But such benefits have proven to be self-defeating.

“Other nations have tried the ideology of fairness in the place of incentives and found that reward without work is a recipe for decline,” professor Lerrick says.

It's worth repeating: "...reward without work is a recipe for decline."

It will take a while before the electorate sees this. But by then the damage will have been done in the form of still higher taxes and more economic troubles.

"Taxation without representation is tyranny!" That was a rallying cry when our country was founded. The American Revolution and our democratic form of government took care of that. So, are we threatened by tyranny today? “No,” I want to say dismissively.

But then, like a deer caught in the headlights, I am stunned by the staggering number of eligible voters who pay little or no federal income taxes--and, who will receive an economic benefit through Senator Obama's proposed tax plan.

I think professor Lerrick is warning us about what Alexis de Tocqueville termed “tyranny by the majority.” That occurs when the majority causes government to do something ultimately detrimental to society as a whole. Should Senator Obama's tax plan become effective, we may well be faced with such a dilemma.

A majority of U.S. voters, who enjoy representation, may largely avoid taxation. We should all be concerned about that.
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* For his article professor Lerrick draws on 2006 U.S. Census data (the most recent available) and an analysis by the Tax Policy Center. The Center is a joint venture of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute. Brookings is one of the Washington’s oldest non-profit think tanks. It is headed by Mr. Strobe Talbot, a former TIME magazine reporter and diplomat in the Clinton Administration. Mr. Talbot and President Clinton were Rhodes Scholars together at the University of Oxford. The Urban Institute is a Washington, D.C., non-profit think tank which educates Americans on social and economic issues. It was founded during President Lyndon Johnson's administration to provide nonpartisan analyses of the problems facing America's cities. It is headed by Mr. Robert D. Reischauer a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and nationally known expert on the federal budget, Medicare, and Social Security.