U.S. Civil War Coming?

If you happen to live in the Midwest you may eventually become a Canadian citizen after a civil war occurs. That's what Igor Panarin predicts. Mr. Panarin heads the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for diplomats. He is a former KGB analyst and is a key Russian expert on Russia-U.S. relations.

He argues that:

• Economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war in the U.S. in 2010;
• There is a 55-45% chance that the U.S. will disintegrate and split into six parts (see map below);
• Each part will become affiliated with another country or part of the world--for example, Midwest and several other states will become affiliated with Canada.

Is he serious? Yes, at least that's what the official media in Russia would have us all believe.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama can work miracles, he has written, "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

Does anyone believe him? Well, he points out that French political scientist Emmanuel Todd rightly forecasted the demise of the Soviet Union 15 years before it happened. Few believed him but in the end he was right.

Quick Vue: Igor Penarin is interviewed below.

Sources for this post include The Wall Street Journal, article by Andrew Osborn.